|Vic Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2004/2005, issued 19th November 2004|
Neutral outlook for Victorian summer rainfall
The chances of accumulating at least average summer (Dec-Feb) rain are close to 50% over Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. So there are no large swings in the odds towards either above or below average rainfall.
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five summers out of ten are expected to be drier than average in Victoria, with about five out of ten being wetter. The current pattern of outlook probabilities is mainly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During summer, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent in patches across southern Victoria, but generally weakly or very weakly consistent through the north of the State (see background information).
Progress towards a late-developing El Niño event has slowed over the past two months, with consistent cloud and wind patterns failing to materialize. The central Pacific remains warmer than average and at levels consistent with El Niño, but the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was only weakly negative, coming in at 4 for October. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 16th November was 5.
For routine updates on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the El Niño Wrap-Up.
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|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th DECEMBER 2004.