|Vic Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for May to July 2005, issued 15th April 2005|
Neutral outlook for Victorian seasonal rainfall
There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average rainfall for the May to July period in parts of eastern and northern NSW, and southern Queensland, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. For the rest of the country, including Victoria, the chances of accumulating at least average rain for the coming three months are close to 50%.
Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the May-July period, history shows this influence to be only weakly consistent across most of Victoria (see background information).
After reaching 29 in February, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rebounded strongly in March to a value of 0. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 12th April was +6.
Low SOI values in February and subsurface warming in the central Pacific have caused some speculation regarding a possible El Niño developing in 2005. While the risk has increased it is too early at this stage to predict what might happen in the Pacific, with any confidence. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
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|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th MAY 2005