|NT Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Winter 2005, issued 17th May 2005|
Neutral outlook for NT three-month rainfall
In the Northern Territory, the chances of accumulating at least average rain during the early to mid-dry season are close to 50%, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.
So for the June to August period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 40 and 50% over the NT (see map). Therefore in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five June to August periods out of ten are expected to be drier than average across the Territory, with about five out of ten being wetter. It should be remembered though, that the northern half of the NT is seasonally dry in winter, and significant falls of rain are uncommon.
Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During June to August, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across much of the NT (see background information).
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has shown a high level of volatility recently with values of 11, zero and 29 for April, March and February respectively. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th May was 10.
Low SOI values and warming in the Pacific Ocean over the past three months have increased the chances of an El Niño developing in 2005. However, it is still too early to predict what might happen in the Pacific, with any confidence. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th JUNE 2005