|Qld Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2005, issued 15th September 2005|
Reduced falls for parts of North Queensland
Seasonal rainfall odds released today by the Bureau of Meteorology, indicate an increased likelihood of below median falls over parts of north Queensland for the December quarter (October to December).
For the October to December period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 35 and 40% over an area of north Queensland inland from Townsville (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about four December quarters out of ten are expected to be wetter than the median over these parts of the State, with about six out of ten being drier.
Over the rest of Queensland, the chances of accumulating at least median three-month rainfall are between 40 and 50%. Continuing warmth over the Pacific is associated with reduced rainfall over much of Queensland, but this is balanced somewhat by a warmer than average Indian Ocean which tends to promote increased seasonal falls.
Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the December quarter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across much of Queensland, except in parts of the south and southeast where it is only weakly consistent (see background information).
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell from +1 in July to −7 in August. However, the SOI has begun to rise again with the approximate value for the 30 days ending 12th September being −1.
With all the main tropical Pacific climate indicators remaining neutral, an El Niño event developing in 2005 is not considered a realistic possibility. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8660.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 18th OCTOBER 2005