|NSW Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2006, issued 19th December 2005|
Above average falls favoured in northern NSW for early 2006
In line with recent rainfall patterns, there are increased chances of a wetter than average March quarter (January to March) over parts of northern New South Wales, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, the chances of accumulating at least median rain during the coming three months are close to 50% across much of the State.
For the January to March period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 60 and 65% over much of the area northeast of a line from Goodooga to Newcastle (see map).
So in years with ocean patterns similar to the present, about six March quarters out of ten are expected to be wetter than the median over these parts of NSW, with about four out of ten being drier.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the March quarter, history shows the effect to be moderately consistent through approximately the eastern one-third of NSW, but only weakly or very weakly consistent elsewhere across the State (see background information).
After rising steadily between August and October, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell during November to a value of −3. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th December was −5.
For routine updates on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 24th JANUARY 2006