|NT Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2006, issued 19th December 2005|
Increased risk for below average falls in parts of NT
There are increased risks of a drier than average March quarter (January to March) over some areas in the north of the NT (see map), the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, the chances of accumulating at least median rain during the first three months of 2006, are close to 50% across much of the Territory.
For the January to March period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 35 and 40% over some relatively small areas in the north of the NT, indicating an increased risk of drier than average conditions. However, the outlook skill is low across some of this region so this outlook should be used with caution (see below).
So in years with ocean patterns similar to the present, about six March quarters out of ten are expected to be drier than the median over these parts of the NT, with about four out of ten being drier.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the March quarter, history shows the effect to be moderately consistent through large parts of the NT, especially the southern half, but with scattered areas where the effect is only weakly or very weakly consistent (see background information).
After rising steadily between August and October, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell during November to a value of −3. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th December was −5.
For routine updates on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 24th JANUARY 2006