|Tas Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2006, issued 19th December 2005|
50:50 chances for above average March quarter falls in Tasmania
The chances of accumulating at least median rain during the first three months of 2006 are close to 50% across Tasmania, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today (see map).
The outlooks are based on relationships between Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures and Australian rainfall. Recent ocean temperatures have not been sufficiently warmer or cooler than average to produce a strong bias in Tasmanian rainfall outlook odds.
So in years with ocean patterns similar to the present, about five March quarters out of ten are expected to be wetter than the median over Tasmania, with about five out of ten being drier.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the March quarter, history shows the effect to be moderately consistent in the southwest corner of Tasmania, but mainly weakly consistent elsewhere (see background information).
After rising steadily between August and October, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell during November to a value of −3. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th December was −5.
For routine updates on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 24th JANUARY 2006