|NT Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2006, issued 25th July 2006|
Three-month rainfall odds mainly close to 50:50 in the NT
The current three-month rainfall odds do not strongly favour either wetter or drier than average conditions across the Northern Territory. The chances of accumulating at least median rain during the late dry to early wet season period (August-October) are close to 50% across most part of the NT, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.
The pattern of three-month rainfall odds across Australia is partly a function of raised temperatures in the Pacific, but more strongly related to rapidly increasing Indian Ocean temperatures.
However, for some eastern parts of the NT, the chances are between 35 and 40% for receiving above median rainfall during the August to October period (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six August to October periods out of 10 are expected to be drier than average in these areas, with about four out of ten being wetter.
It should be remembered that, it in terms of average conditions, it is a rather dry time of year in northern Australia, with heavy rain being uncommon.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During August to October, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent across the east and north of the NT (see background information).
After falling to −10 in May, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose slightly in June to a value of −6. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 22nd July was −9.
Although the chances of an El Niño have risen somewhat in the past month, continued neutral ENSO conditions is the most likely outcome for the remainder of 2006. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on the latest data relating to ENSO, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 24th AUGUST 2006