|SA Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2006, issued 25th July 2006|
Generally 50:50 chances for above average seasonal rainfall
In general, the current seasonal rainfall odds do not strongly favour either wetter or drier than average conditions across South Australia. The chances of accumulating at least median rain during the late winter to mid-spring period (August-October) are mostly close to 50% across the State, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.
However, the area to the northeast of Port Augusta and the far northeast corner of the state are two exceptions. For the August to October period in these regions, the chances of above median rainfall are between 35 and 40% (see map).
So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six August to October periods out of 10 are expected to be drier than average in these parts of SA, with about four out of ten being wetter.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During August to October, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent in small patches of northern and southeast SA, but across most of the State it is only weakly or very weakly consistent (see background information).
After falling to −10 in May, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose slightly in June to a value of −6. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 22nd July was −9.
Although the chances of an El Niño have risen somewhat in the past month, continued neutral ENSO conditions is the most likely outcome for the remainder of 2006. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on the latest data relating to ENSO, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 24th AUGUST 2006