|NT Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for November 2006 to January 2007, issued 26th October 2006|
Neutral outlook for early to mid wet season
The latest seasonal rainfall outlook for the NT issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, shows a neutral pattern of odds for exceeding the median rainfall over the early to middle part of the wet season (November-January).
The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across the Territory is a result of higher than average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The warm Pacific biases the climate towards drier than average in the northern half, but the warm Indian Ocean promotes wetter than average conditions across much of the NT.
The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for the November to January period, are mostly between 55 and 60%, with slightly lower probabilities in the far south. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five or six November to January periods out of ten are expected to be wetter than average over the NT, with about five or four out of ten being drier.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the November to January period, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent across most of the NT (see background information).
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), negative for the fifth straight month, rose from −16 in August to −5 in September. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 23rd October was −14.
The current El Niño conditions, of which the low SOI is but one indicator, are very likely to persist for the rest of 2006, which would qualify it as an official El Niño event. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
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|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 23rd NOVEMBER 2006