|NT Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Autumn 2007, issued 22nd February 2007|
Neutral three-month rainfall outlook for the NT
The Northern Territory outlook for total March to May rainfall, shows no strong swings in the odds towards wetter or drier conditions. The pattern of three-month rainfall odds across Australia is a result of higher than average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean (because of El Niño) and also in the Indian Ocean. More influence has come from the Pacific.
The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for the transition period from wet to dry season (March to May), are between 40 and 50% over the NT (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five or six March to May periods out of ten are drier than average and four or five out of ten are wetter across the Territory.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During autumn, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent across much of the NT (see background information).
The January Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value was −7, a slight drop from the December reading of −3. The approximate SOI for the 30-days ending 19th February was −3.
The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main ENSO indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 26th MARCH 2007