|NT Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2007, issued 26th March 2007|
Neutral June quarter rainfall outlook for the NT
The NT outlook for total rainfall during the coming three months (April to June), shows no moderate or strong swings in the odds towards either above-normal or below-normal falls. So the chances of accumulating at least average rain for the coming three months are close to 50%.
The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Australia is a result of recent higher than average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and also in parts of the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean. More influence has come from the Indian.
The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for the end of the wet season and first two months of the dry season are between 50 and 55% over the NT (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five April to June periods out of ten are wetter than average across the Territory and five out of ten are drier.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the June quarter, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent in patches across the north of the Territory, but only weakly or very weakly consistent over remaining parts of the NT (see background information).
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been rising recently with values of −7 in January, −3 in February and an approximate 30-day value of +5 as at 21st March.
The 2006/07 El Niño has ended, with central to eastern Pacific temperatures having cooled to near-average. There is an increased chance of a La Niña developing in 2007 - for routine updates and comprehensive discussion on any developments in this regard please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 23rd APRIL 2007