|Qld Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2007, issued 26th March 2007|
Above-normal June quarter falls favoured in southeast Queensland
The Queensland outlook for total June quarter (April to June) rainfall, shows a moderate swing in the odds towards above-normal falls in the southeast of the State. However, over most of Queensland the chances of accumulating at least average rain for the coming three months are close to 50%.
The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Queensland is mainly a result of recent higher than average temperatures in parts of the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean.
The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for the April to June period are between 60 and 70% southeast of a line joining Bundaberg, Augathella and Brewarrina (NSW) (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six June quarters out of ten are wetter than average and four out of ten are drier in this area with enhanced odds.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the June quarter, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent across southeast Queensland and in patches in the northwest. In remaining parts of the State the effect is generally weakly consistent (see background information).
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been rising recently with values of −7 in January, −3 in February and an approximate 30-day value of +5 as at 21st March.
The 2006/07 El Niño has ended, with central to eastern Pacific temperatures having cooled to near-average. There is an increased chance of a La Niña developing in 2007 - for routine updates and comprehensive discussion on any developments in this regard please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8660.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 23rd APRIL 2007