|Tas Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2007, issued 26th March 2007|
Neutral June quarter rainfall outlook for Tasmania
The Tasmanian outlook for total June quarter (April to June) rainfall, shows no moderate or strong swings in the odds towards either above-normal or below-normal falls. So the chances of accumulating at least average rain for the coming three months are close to 50%.
The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Australia is a result of recent higher than average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and also in parts of the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean. More influence has come from the Indian.
The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for the April to June period are between 45 and 55% over Tasmania (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five June quarters out of ten are wetter than average across the State and five out of ten are drier.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the June quarter, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent across the eastern half of Tasmania, but only weakly consistent in the west (see background information).
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been rising recently with values of −7 in January, −3 in February and an approximate 30-day value of +5 as at 21st March.
The 2006/07 El Niño has ended, with central to eastern Pacific temperatures having cooled to near-average. There is an increased chance of a La Niña developing in 2007 - for routine updates and comprehensive discussion on any developments in this regard please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 23rd APRIL 2007