Mixed rainfall odds for Northern Australia

The North Australian outlook for rainfall shows a mixed chance of exceeding the median rainfall over the late spring to mid-summer period (November-January). Drier than normal conditions are favoured for southeast Queensland, whereas above average three-month totals are favoured in the central and western NT.

The pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across northern Australia is a result of higher than average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The contribution of the warm Pacific biases the climate towards below average rainfall across eastern Australia. The warm Indian Ocean promotes wetter than average conditions across the tropics, more so in western parts.

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall for November to January are between 25 and 40% over southeast Queensland (see map). This means that for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven years are expected to be drier than average over these regions, while about three or four years are wetter.

Contrasting this, the chance of wetter than average conditions is between 60 and 65% for western and central parts of the NT.

Across the rest of northern Australia, including central and northern Queensland, the chances of exceeding the median rainfall for November to January are between 40 and 60%, meaning that above average falls are about as equally likely as below average falls in these regions.

New: An expanded set of seasonal rainfall outlook maps and tables, including the probabilities of seasonal rainfall exceeding given totals (e.g. 200 mm), is available on the "Water and the Land" (WATL) part of the Bureau's website.

Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall. During the November to January period, history shows this effect to be moderately consistent over much of northern Australia (see background information).

An El Niño event persists across the Pacific Basin, with most leading climate models suggesting tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least early 2010. El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. The SOI is approximately −8 for the 30 days ending 20 October. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on any developments please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.

Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed. More detailed forecast maps, including the probabilities of seasonal rainfall exceeding given totals, can be found here.

More information on this outlook is available by contacting the Bureau's Climate Services sections in Queensland and the Northern Territory at the following numbers:

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 24^th November 2009

Corresponding temperature outlook

September 2009 rainfall in historical perspective

July to September 2009 rainfall in historical perspective

Background Information

• The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

• This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (Seasonal Climate Outlook Products).

• Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

• Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 25 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (El Niño - Detailed Australian Analysis).