Southeast Australian rainfall outlook

Issued 22 January 2014

No strong rainfall odds for southeast Australia

Summary

  • The chances of a wetter or drier than normal season are roughly equal over most of southeast Australia
  • Most climate influences are near average, including a neutral tropical Pacific
  • Outlook accuracy is moderate across most of SA, northeast NSW, western Victoria and Tasmania, but weak elsewhere in southeast Australia. See outlook accuracy tab for more information.
Probability of exceeding median rainfall, large image

Details

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall are between 40 and 60% over almost all of southeast Australia during the February to April period. This means there is not a strong tendency for either a wetter or drier February to April period for most of southeast Australia.

Compared to the outlook issued last month (for the January to March period), the February to April outlook shows an improvement in odds (i.e., a reduced chance of below average rainfall) over drought affected northern NSW.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.

Oceans surrounding Australia are generally expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate during the months from December to April.

How accurate is the outlook?

Outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate over most of SA, northeast NSW, western Victoria and Tasmania
  • Low over western and southern NSW, eastern Victoria and the northeast and central west of SA