Western Australian rainfall outlook

Issued 22 January 2014

Equal chances of wetter or drier season for Western Australia

Summary

  • The chances of a wetter or drier than normal season are roughly equal over Western Australia
  • Climate influences are close to their long-term average
  • Outlook accuracy is moderate to high along the northwest coast, and in central and southeastern parts of Western Australia, but in parts of the southwest, near the west coast, and in eastern parts, the accuracy is low to very low.
Probability of exceeding median rainfall, large image

Details

For the February to April period, the chances of exceeding median rainfall is between 45% and 60% over Western Australia. This means that there is not a strong tendency for either a wetter or drier February to April period for most locations.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.

Oceans surrounding Australia are generally expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas,

The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate during the months from December to April.

How accurate is the outlook?

Outlook accuracy for the February to April period is:

  • Moderate to high along the northwest coast, and in central and southeastern parts of WA
  • Low in parts of the southwest, near the west coast, and in eastern parts