Southeast Australian rainfall outlook

Issued 24 February 2014

No strong rainfall odds for southeast Australia

Summary

  • The chances of a wetter or drier than normal season are roughly equal over most of southeast Australia
  • Most climate influences are near average, including a neutral tropical Pacific
  • Outlook accuracy is moderate to high across NSW and Victoria; outlook accuracy is low across southern and western parts of SA and most Tasmania. See outlook accuracy tab for more information.
Probability of exceeding median rainfall, large image

Details

The chances of exceeding the median rainfall are between 40 and 60% over almost all of southeast Australia during the autumn period. This means there is not a strong tendency for either a wetter or drier autumn period for most of southeast Australia.

Climate influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with the majority of atmospheric and oceanic indicators close to their long-term average. Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist at least for the next three months.

Oceans surrounding Australia are generally expected to remain close to their 1981-2010 average. Atmospheric pressures may be below average over some southern areas.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate during the months from December to April.

How accurate is the outlook?

Outlook accuracy for the autumn period is:

  • Moderate over most of NSW and Victoria
  • Low over western Tasmania and southern parts of SA