MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 15^th AUGUST 2001
Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for Spring 2001

Odds on for warm spring

The current climate patterns, particularly a warm Indian Ocean, favour above average spring temperatures in many areas. The chances of above average maximum temperatures are over 60% in the southeast, the far west and across most of Queensland and the N.T., (see first map below), according to the National Climate Centre.

Most notably, around the Gulf of Carpentaria the chances are between 70 and 80%. So in years similar to the present, about 7 or 8 spring seasons out of every 10 are warmer than average in these areas, whilst about 2 or 3 out of 10 are cooler. In addition, the outlook method has moderate to high skill over much of these areas.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is even more strongly in favour of above average readings, with 70 to 80% chances over the vast bulk of western, central and southeast Australia (see second map below). Also, forecast skill is moderate to high over most of these regions for spring.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The warming of the Indian Ocean dominates the temperature outlook probabilities.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 9:00am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Clare Mullen on (03) 9669 4296
David Jones on (03) 9669 4085.

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13^th SEPTEMBER 2001.

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.