NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2003, issued 17th June 2003

Neutral odds for NSW seasonal daytime temperatures

The Bureau's latest seasonal temperature outlook shows the odds are shifted in favour of warmer than average daytime temperatures in the north and west of the country. In NSW though, the odds are neutral.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 50 and 55% across the majority of the state, with probabilities exceeding 55% in the southwest and along most of the southern border. The temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans have influenced these probabilities.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across NSW, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler. The Bureau's July to September maximum temperature outlooks have low reliability over most of the state except in the north and northeast where moderate skill is shown (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over large parts of NSW. The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are between 60 and 70% across most of NSW, the highest probabilities being in the far north. Minimum temperature outlooks for the season have low reliability over most of the state increasing to moderate along the mid to north coastal areas.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th JULY 2003.

Archive of previous National Seasonal Rainfall Outlooks

Archive of previous National Seasonal Temperature Outlooks

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information