NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2003, issued 17th June 2003

Warmer season in the northern NT

The Bureau's latest seasonal temperature outlook shows the odds are shifted in favour of warmer than average daytime temperatures in the north and west of the country.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 70% across the northern half of the NT. Close to the Gulf of Carpentaria, the probabilities approach 75%. The probabilities over the NT are mainly the result of recent higher than average temperatures across the Pacific Ocean.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average in the north of the NT, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler. In remaining parts of the Territory, the chances of above average seasonal temperatures are between 50 and 60%. The Bureau's July to September maximum temperature outlooks have moderate reliability over the NT (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over large parts of the country but only over the eastern fringes of the NT. The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are generally between 50 and 60% across the Territory, increasing to above 60% in some far eastern regions. Minimum temperature outlooks for the season have moderate reliability over the eastern half of the NT but low skill in the west of the Territory.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th JULY 2003.

Archive of previous National Seasonal Rainfall Outlooks

Archive of previous National Seasonal Temperature Outlooks

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information