SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2003, issued 17th June 2003

Neutral odds for SA seasonal daytime temperatures

The Bureau's latest seasonal temperature outlook shows the odds are shifted in favour of warmer than average daytime temperatures in the north and west of the country. However no strong signal is evident over SA.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 50 and 55% in the northern parts of the state, and between 55 and 60% in the southeast. The temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans have influenced these probabilities.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across the State with about 5 out of 10 being cooler. The Bureau's July to September maximum temperature outlooks have moderate reliability in the far north of SA, but low reliability elsewhere (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over northeast SA with the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures being between 60 and 65% in this region. Elsewhere over the State the chances range from 55 to 60%. Minimum temperature outlooks for the season have low reliability across the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th JULY 2003.

Archive of previous National Seasonal Rainfall Outlooks

Archive of previous National Seasonal Temperature Outlooks

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information