Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2003, issued 17th June 2003

No clear signal for Victorian seasonal temperatures

The Bureau's latest seasonal temperature outlook shows the odds are shifted in favour of warmer than average daytime temperatures in the north and west of the country. However odds are largely neutral over Victoria.

For the July to September period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 55 and 60% over Victoria except in the far southeast where probabilities are marginally lower. These probabilities have been influenced by the Indian Ocean temperature patterns.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across Victoria, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler. The Bureau's July to September maximum temperature outlooks have low reliability over all of Victoria. (see background information).

The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are between 55 and 60% over Victoria. Minimum temperature outlooks for this particular three-month period have low reliability state-wide.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th JULY 2003.

Archive of previous National Seasonal Rainfall Outlooks

Archive of previous National Seasonal Temperature Outlooks

Maximum temperature departures from average for March to May 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for March to May 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information