Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2003, issued 16th July 2003

Increased warmth favoured in Qld during late winter/mid-spring

The Bureau's latest seasonal temperature outlook shows generally large swings towards warmer than average daytime and night-time temperatures over much of country for the late winter to mid-spring period.

For the August to October period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over Queensland with the exception of northern and eastern Cape York Peninsula. The highest probabilities of near 80% occur in the south of the State. The overall pattern of probabilities has mainly resulted from a warmer than average Indian Ocean.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average over most of Queensland, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler. The Bureau's August to October maximum temperature outlooks have moderate to high reliability over the southern half of the State (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over much of country. The outlook for above average seasonal minimum temperatures in Queensland is very similar to the maximum temperature outlook with greater than 60% chances over all of the State except the far north. Probabilities approach 80% over southwestern Queensland. Minimum temperature outlooks for the season have generally moderate reliability over much of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th AUGUST 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for April to June 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for April to June 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information