Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2003, issued 16th July 2003

Increased warmth favoured in Tasmania during late winter/mid-spring

The Bureau's latest seasonal temperature outlook shows generally large swings towards warmer than average daytime and night-time temperatures over much of country for the late winter to mid-spring period.

For the August to October period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% over Tasmania, apart from some areas in the north and west of the State where they're a little below 60%. The overall pattern of probabilities has mainly resulted from a warmer than average Indian Ocean.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average over most of Tasmania, with about 4 out of 10 being cooler. The Bureau's August to October maximum temperature outlooks have modest levels of reliability in the north and west of the State and low reliability in the southeast (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over northwest and northeast Tasmania where the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are between 60 and 65%. Minimum temperature outlooks for the season have moderate reliability over southern and eastern Tasmania but low skill across the rest of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th AUGUST 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for April to June 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for April to June 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information