National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Spring 2003, issued 19th August 2003

Warmer spring favoured in tropics and southeast

The Bureau's spring temperature outlook shows moderate to large swings towards warmer than average daytime temperatures in the tropics and far southeast of the mainland.

For the September to November period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over the northern third of the continent, most of Victoria and the far southeast of SA. The probabilities exceed 75% in the eastern Top-End of the NT and western parts of Cape York Peninsula. In other parts of the country, the chances are between 50 and 60%. The overall pattern of probabilities has mainly resulted from a warmer than average Indian Ocean.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average in the north and far southeast of the mainland, with about 3 or 4 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During spring, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over large areas of the country. The influence is weak over the far west of the country, and southern Victoria and Tasmania so users are urged to exercise caution when applying probabilities in those areas (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over much of the country. The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are between 60 and 75% across most of the country, with probabilities near 80% over the western NT extending into northern WA.

History shows the oceans' influence on spring minimum temperatures to be strong over the central-west of WA and moderate to strong over the remainder of the country excluding an area covering most of Victoria and extending along the east coast to southern Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, Janita Pahalad on (03) 9669 4859, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085, Rob Nash on (03) 9669 4288, Felicity Gamble on (03) 9669 4256.
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



Maximum temperature departures from average for May to July 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for May to July 2003 - base period 1961-1990


Background Information