Warmer spring favoured in tropics and southeast

The Bureau's spring temperature outlook shows moderate to large swings towards warmer than average daytime temperatures in the tropics and far southeast of the mainland.

For the September to November period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over the northern third of the continent, most of Victoria and the far southeast of SA. The probabilities exceed 75% in the eastern Top-End of the NT and western parts of Cape York Peninsula. In other parts of the country, the chances are between 50 and 60%. The overall pattern of probabilities has mainly resulted from a warmer than average Indian Ocean. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average in the north and far southeast of the mainland, with about 3 or 4 out of 10 being cooler. Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During spring, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over large areas of the country. The influence is weak over the far west of the country, and southern Victoria and Tasmania so users are urged to exercise caution when applying probabilities in those areas (see background information). Warmer than average nights are also favoured over much of the country. The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are between 60 and 75% across most of the country, with probabilities near 80% over the western NT extending into northern WA. History shows the oceans' influence on spring minimum temperatures to be strong over the central-west of WA and moderate to strong over the remainder of the country excluding an area covering most of Victoria and extending along the east coast to southern Queensland.

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Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:

Queensland -	(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -	(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -	(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -	(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -	(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -	(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -	(08) 8920 3813

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16^th SEPTEMBER 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for May to July 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for May to July 2003 - base period 1961-1990

• The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

• This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/SClimate.shtml).

• Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

• Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 23 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/).