Warmer end to the year across Australia

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the December quarter shows moderate to large swings towards warmer than average daytime and nighttime temperatures over most parts of the country.

For the October to December period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over the entire country, with the exception of parts of central and northwest Australia. The probabilities are in the 70 to 80% range in Victoria, most of Tasmania, south and east SA, the southwest half of NSW, southwest WA, central and northern Queensland and the northeast of the NT. The overall pattern of probabilities is a result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across many areas, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler. Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over large areas of the country. The influence is weak or very weak near the central NSW coast, and in a large area covering the southwest of the NT and the far east of WA. Users are urged to exercise caution when applying probabilities in those areas (see background information). Warmer than average nights are also favoured over WA, the NT, Queensland, and the far north of both SA and NSW. The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures in these areas are between 60 and 75%, with probabilities near 80% over much of southern and the western WA, and parts of Cape York in Queensland. In Tasmania, Victoria, and most of SA and NSW, the odds are close to 50:50. History shows the oceans' influence on Oct-Dec minimum temperatures to be moderate over much of the country. The main exception is across most of the NT and adjacent northeast WA where the influence is weak to very weak. It is also generally weak over much of Victoria.

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:

Queensland -	(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -	(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -	(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -	(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -	(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -	(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -	(08) 8920 3813

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16^th OCTOBER 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

• The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

• This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/SClimate.shtml).

• Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

• Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 23 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/).