National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2003, issued 16th September 2003

Warmer end to the year across Australia

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the December quarter shows moderate to large swings towards warmer than average daytime and nighttime temperatures over most parts of the country.

For the October to December period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over the entire country, with the exception of parts of central and northwest Australia. The probabilities are in the 70 to 80% range in Victoria, most of Tasmania, south and east SA, the southwest half of NSW, southwest WA, central and northern Queensland and the northeast of the NT. The overall pattern of probabilities is a result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across many areas, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over large areas of the country. The influence is weak or very weak near the central NSW coast, and in a large area covering the southwest of the NT and the far east of WA. Users are urged to exercise caution when applying probabilities in those areas (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over WA, the NT, Queensland, and the far north of both SA and NSW. The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures in these areas are between 60 and 75%, with probabilities near 80% over much of southern and the western WA, and parts of Cape York in Queensland. In Tasmania, Victoria, and most of SA and NSW, the odds are close to 50:50.

History shows the oceans' influence on Oct-Dec minimum temperatures to be moderate over much of the country. The main exception is across most of the NT and adjacent northeast WA where the influence is weak to very weak. It is also generally weak over much of Victoria.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, Janita Pahalad on (03) 9669 4859, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085, Felicity Gamble on (03) 9669 4256.
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990


Background Information