NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2003, issued 16th September 2003

Warmer end to the year for NSW

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the December quarter shows moderate to large swings towards warmer than average daytime temperatures over NSW.

For the October to December period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are in the 70 to 80% range across the southwest half of NSW, and between 60 and 70% in the northeast half. The overall pattern of probabilities is a result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across NSW, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over NSW with the exception of the central coast. So users are urged to exercise caution when applying probabilities in this part of the State (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over the northern quarter of NSW with the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures in this part of the State being between 60 and 65%. In other parts of NSW the odds are close to 50:50.

History shows the oceans' influence on Oct-Dec minimum temperatures to be moderate over much of NSW, except across the southeast quarter of the State where it is weak.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th OCTOBER 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information