NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2003, issued 16th September 2003

Warmer end to the year across the NT

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the December quarter shows moderate to large swings towards warmer than average daytime and nighttime temperatures over most of the NT.

For the October to December period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over most of the Territory, with the exception of the southwest quarter. The probabilities are in the 70 to 80% range northeast of a line from Joseph Bonaparte Gulf to Camooweal. The overall pattern of probabilities is a result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across much of the NT, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate in the southeast of the NT, but generally weak in northern areas. The influence is weak or very weak in a large area covering the southwest of the NT and the far east of WA. Users are urged to exercise caution when applying probabilities in those areas (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over the NT, with the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures being mainly between 60 and 70%.

History shows the oceans' influence on Oct-Dec minimum temperatures to be weak to very weak over much of the NT, except in the far north and far south where the influence is moderate.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th OCTOBER 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information