Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2003, issued 16th September 2003

Warmer end to the year across Queensland

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the December quarter shows moderate to large swings towards warmer than average daytime and nighttime temperatures over Queensland.

For the October to December period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over the entire State, with probabilities in the 70 to 80% range through central and northern Queensland. The overall pattern of probabilities is a result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across Queensland, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over most of Queensland, apart from much of Cape York where it is weak (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over Queensland. The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are between 60 and 75% over most of the State, with probabilities near 80% over parts of Cape York.

History shows the oceans' influence on Oct-Dec minimum temperatures to be moderate over Queensland, except in the region southeast of Rockhampton where it is weak to very weak.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th OCTOBER 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information