Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2003, issued 16th September 2003

Warmer end to the year in Tasmania

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the December quarter shows moderate to large swings towards warmer than average daytime temperatures over Tasmania.

For the October to December period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are mostly in the 70 to 80% range across the State. The overall pattern of probabilities is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across Tasmania, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate in the northeast third of Tasmania, but weak elsewhere over the State (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over most of northern and western Australia, but across Tasmania the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are between 50 and 55%.

History shows the oceans' influence on Oct-Dec minimum temperatures to be moderate over southern and northwest Tasmania, but weak elsewhere across the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th OCTOBER 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information