WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2003, issued 16th September 2003

Warmer end to the year across Western Australia

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the December quarter shows moderate to large swings towards warmer than average daytime and nighttime temperatures over most of WA.

For the October to December period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 75% over the southwest half of the State, and between 60 and 70% in the north Kimberley. Elsewhere the chances are between 50 and 60%. The overall pattern of probabilities is a result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific.

So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across the southwest half of WA, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During October to December, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over large parts of WA. The influence is weak or very weak in a large area covering the far east of WA and the adjacent southwest of the NT (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are also favoured over WA with the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures being between 60 and 80%.

History shows the oceans' influence on Oct-Dec minimum temperatures to be moderate to high over much the southern half to two-thirds of WA, and weak to very weak across much of the Kimberley.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th OCTOBER 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for June to August 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information