National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for November 2003 to January 2004, issued 16th October 2003

Increased warmth in Qld & northern NSW

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the late spring to mid-summer period shows a moderate to large swing in the odds towards warmer than average daytime temperatures over Queensland and northern NSW. This outlook is largely the result of warmer than average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and a cooling trend in the Indian Ocean.

For the November to January period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% over most of Queensland and the northeast half of NSW, rising to 70 to 80% probabilities in the southeast quarter of Queensland. So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across these northern and eastern parts of the country, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

In WA, most of the NT, SA, Victoria, Tasmania and the southwest half of NSW, the odds for above average seasonal daytime temperatures are close to 50:50.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During November to January, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over large areas of the country. The influence is weak or very weak in parts of northern and central WA and adjacent parts of the NT (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over a larger area of the country with 60 to 70% probabilities over the eastern and central states and Territories, as well as northern WA. The highest chances are in north and east Queensland where they approach 80%. This pattern of odds has been influenced by recent temperature trends in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

History shows the oceans' influence on Nov-Jan minimum temperatures to be moderate over much of the country. The main exception is across the Kimberley in WA and some of the adjacent NT, where this relationship is weak.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, Janita Pahalad on (03) 9669 4859, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085, Felicity Gamble on (03) 9669 4256.
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



Maximum temperature departures from average for July to September 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for July to September 2003 - base period 1961-1990


Background Information