WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for November 2003 to January 2004, issued 16th October 2003

Near neutral temperature odds over WA

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the late spring to mid-summer period shows neutral odds across WA with no strong swing towards either warmer or cooler than average daytime temperatures. This outlook is largely the result of warmer than average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and a cooling trend in the Indian Ocean.

For the November to January period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 40 and 50% across the State, slightly higher in the far north. So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average throughout WA, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During November to January, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate in the southern half of WA and the far north of the State, but weak elsewhere (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured in the far north of WA with probabilities exceeding 65%, but probabilities in the remaining part of the state are near 50%.

History shows the oceans' influence on Nov-Jan minimum temperatures to be moderate in the southern two-thirds of WA and in the far north. However the influence is weak in the remainder of the state.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th NOVEMBER 2003.

Maximum temperature departures from average for July to September 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for July to September 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information