NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2003/2004, issued 14th November 2003

No clear signal for wet season maximum temperatures

The Bureau's temperature outlook for the heart of the wet season, shows the chances of above average daytime temperatures are close to 50:50 across the Northern Territory. This outlook is the result of the combined effect of warmer than average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a strong cooling trend in the Indian Ocean.

For the December to February period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures range from 45 to 50% in the southwest of the Territory to over 55% in the north. So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across the NT, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate in the far north and southeast of the Northern Territory but weak to very weak in the southwest and some northern areas (see background information).

As far as overnight temperatures are concerned, the December to February period is more likely to be warmer than average with the chances of this occurring ranging between 60 and 70%. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on summer minimum temperatures to be moderate to strong across the Northern Territory.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th DECEMBER 2003.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information