Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2003/2004, issued 14th November 2003

Neutral outlook across Qld for summer maximum temperatures

The Bureau's summer temperature outlook shows the chances of above average daytime temperatures are close to 50:50 across the whole of Queensland. This outlook is the result of the combined effect of warmer than average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a strong cooling trend in the Indian Ocean.

For the December to February period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are in the 55 to 60% range over most of the State, reducing to about 50% in southwest Queensland. So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across Queensland, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate to strong across Queensland, except in the southern Gulf region where this influence is weak (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over much of Queensland with probabilities ranging from 55 to 60% in the far south, to above 65% in northern regions. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on summer minimum temperatures to be moderate to strong over much of Queensland except in a small area in the central west where this relationship is weak.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th DECEMBER 2003.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information