Vic Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2003/2004, issued 14th November 2003

Neutral odds for a warmer than average summer in Victoria

The Bureau's summer temperature outlook shows the chances of above average daytime temperatures are close to 50:50 across Victoria. This outlook is the result of the combined effect of warmer than average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a strong cooling trend in the Indian Ocean.

For the December to February period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 40 to 50% over Victoria. So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across Victoria, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be weak to moderate across Victoria (see background information).

Summer minimum temperatures are also showing neutral odds over Victoria with probabilities ranging from 45 to 55%. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on summer minimum temperatures to be weak across much of the Victoria.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th DECEMBER 2003.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information