WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2003/2004, issued 14th November 2003

Odds neutral across WA for summer maximum temperatures

The Bureau's summer temperature outlook shows the chances of above average daytime temperatures are close to 50:50 across the whole of Western Australia. This outlook is the result of the combined effect of warmer than average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a strong cooling trend in the Indian Ocean.

For the December to February period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures range from 45 to 50% in the southern two-thirds of Western Australia to 55% in the far north of the state. So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across Western Australia, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During summer, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderate over most of the western regions of Western Australia, but weak to very weak in the eastern part of the state (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured across the Kimberley region of Western Australia with the chance of exceeding the median temperature being between 60 and 70%. In the remainder of the state however, probabilities are more neutral, ranging between 40 and 60%. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on summer minimum temperatures to be moderate to strong over much of Western Australia, except in some small areas in the east of the state where this relationship is weak.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

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More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th DECEMBER 2003.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for August to October 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for August to October 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information