NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2004, issued 16th December 2003

Higher temperatures for parts of northern NSW

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the March quarter, shows increased chances of above average daytime temperatures in parts of northern NSW. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 70% northeast of a line from Wanaaring to Sydney (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the State, with about 3 or 4 out of 10 being cooler.

Southwest of this line, the probabilities decrease steadily to be within the 40 to 45% range along the Victorian border.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of NSW (see background information).

As far as seasonal minimum temperatures are concerned, the outlook is neutral. The chances of above average overnight March quarter temperatures range between 45 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March quarter to be moderately consistent in the far northern inland of NSW. Elsewhere in the State the influence shows weak to very weak consistency.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 15th JANUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information