NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2004, issued 16th December 2003

Higher temperatures more likely in northern NT

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the mid to late wet season, shows increased chances of above average daytime temperatures in the northeast half of the Northern Territory. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are over 60% northeast of a line from the Bungle Bungle National Park in WA to Birdsville in far western Queensland (see map). Within this region, the chances peak in the 75 to 80% range in eastern Arnhem Land. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across the north and east of the NT, with about 3 or 4 out of 10 being cooler.

Elsewhere in the NT, the chances of a warmer than average three months decrease southwestward to be near 45% at the border with WA and SA.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the northeastern two-thirds of the NT. However, the influence is weak or very weak in remaining parts (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over all of the Northern Territory with probabilities in the 60 to 75% range. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March quarter to be moderate to highly consistent over most of the NT.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 15th JANUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information