Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2004, issued 16th December 2003

Higher temperatures likely in Queensland

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the March quarter, shows increased chances of above average daytime temperatures through nearly all of Queensland. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are over 60% across nearly all of the State, peaking in the 75 to 80% range in northern and central areas (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across Queensland, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over most of the State with a strong influence in the Bundaberg to Rockhampton region (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over most of Queensland with 60 to 80% probabilities north of a line from Birdsville to Charleville to Brisbane. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March quarter to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 15th JANUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information