SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2004, issued 16th December 2003

Cooler season more likely in southeast SA

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the March quarter shows increased chances of below average daytime temperatures in the southeast of South Australia. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 35 and 40% in southeast SA (see map). This means that BELOW average temperatures have a 60 to 65% chance of occurring. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be cooler than average in this part of the State, with about 4 out of 10 being warmer.

Elsewhere in SA, the chances of a warmer than average season increase northwards and eastwards reaching about 60% in the far northeast corner.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in the southern half of SA, but weak or very weak in the south (see background information).

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures shows that the warmer than average nights have a 40 to 60% chance of occurring, increasing to just over 60% near the Northern Territory border. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March quarter to be generally very weak across South Australia.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 15th JANUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information