Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2004, issued 16th December 2003

Little guidance for Tasmanian seasonal temperatures

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the March quarter, shows that the chances of above average daytime temperatures are mainly near 50:50 over Tasmania. The one exception is a small area northwest of Hobart where the odds are more in favour of a cooler than normal season. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 35 and 40% in the Derwent Valley (see map), and between 40 and 45% across the rest of the State. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be cooler than average in the Derwent Valley, with about 4 out of 10 being warmer.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over Tasmania (see background information).

The outlook for above average overnight March quarter temperatures is neutral with the chances ranging between 45 and 50% across Tasmania.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March quarter to be weak to very weakly consistent in Tasmania.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 15th JANUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information