WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for January to March 2004, issued 16th December 2003

Higher temperatures likely in far northern WA

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the March quarter, shows increased chances of above average daytime temperatures in the northern Kimberley. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the January to March period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 70% in the northern Kimberley (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average in this part of the State, with about 3 out of 10 being cooler.

Elsewhere in WA, the outlook is neutral with the chances of increased seasonal warmth being mainly between 45 and 55%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March quarter, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent in a broad zone about a line joining Port Hedland and Esperance, and about the far northeast coast. The influence is generally very weak along the west coast and throughout the northeast interior (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over the northeast of Western Australia, with probabilities in the 60 to 70% range. Elsewhere, the chances of above average overnight March quarter temperatures are between 50 and 60%. This outlook pattern is mostly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in WA in the March quarter to be moderately consistent in the north, along parts of the west coast and some of the southeast. Elsewhere the influence shows weak to very weak consistency.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 15th JANUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for September to November 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information