National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2004, issued 15th January 2004

Higher temperatures likely in Qld and NT

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for late summer to mid-autumn, shows increased chances of above average daytime temperatures over much of Queensland and the northern NT. In contrast, there is an increased likelihood of a cooler than average season in parts of southeastern Australia. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the February to April period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 70% northeast of a line from far northern WA to the north coast of NSW (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the country, with about 3 or 4 out of 10 being cooler.

In southeast SA, most of western and central Victoria, as well as the southeast and far northwest of Tasmania, the chances of a warmer than average February to April period are between 35 and 40%. This means that a cooler than average season has a 60 to 65% chance of occurring.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over Queensland, the northern NT, central WA and patches in SA, Victoria, NSW and Tasmania (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over much of northern Australia, with probabilities between 60 and 70% across the NT, the northern half of Queensland and northeast WA. In contrast, the chances across southeast parts of the mainland are between 35 and 40% indicating that cooler than average nights are more likely. Elsewhere, the outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is neutral with chances between 40 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be moderately consistent over large parts of the country.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, Blair Trewin on (03) 9669 4603, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085, Felicity Gamble on (03) 9669 4256.
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990


Background Information