NSW Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2004, issued 15th January 2004

Neutral outlook for NSW seasonal temperatures

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for late summer to mid-autumn, shows near 50:50 chances of above average daytime temperatures over most of NSW. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the February to April period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 40 and 60% over most of NSW, increasing to marginally above 60% in parts of the far north and northeast of the State (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across most of NSW, with about 5 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent along the northern and central NSW coasts, but elsewhere the influence is only weakly or very weakly consistent (see background information).

Cooler than average nights are favoured over the southwest border regions of NSW with the chances of this occurring being between 60 and 65%. Elsewhere, the outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures is neutral with chances between 40 and 55%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be weakly consistent over most of NSW.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th FEBRUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information