NT Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2004, issued 15th January 2004

Higher temperatures likely in the NT

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for the late wet season, shows increased chances of above average daytime temperatures over much of the northern NT. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the February to April period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 70% across much of the northern half of the Territory (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the NT, with about 3 or 4 out of 10 being cooler. In remaining parts of the NT the chances are between 50 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the Top End, but mainly weakly consistent elsewhere in the NT. (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over much of northern Australia, with the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures being between 60 and 70% across the NT.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be moderately consistent over all but the southern fringe of the NT.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th FEBRUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information