Qld Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2004, issued 15th January 2004

Higher temperatures likely in Qld

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for late summer to mid-autumn, shows increased chances of above average daytime temperatures over much of Queensland. This outlook pattern is mainly the result of above average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly the west.

For the February to April period in Queensland, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 60 and 70% except in the far west and southwest where they're between 50 and 60% (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 or 7 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across most of the State, with about 3 or 4 out of 10 being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over the vast majority of Queensland (see background information).

Warmer than average nights are favoured over the northern half of Queensland with the chances of this occurring being in the 60 to 70% range. In the south of the State the chances are between 50 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be moderately consistent over most of Queensland.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th FEBRUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information