SA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2004, issued 15th January 2004

Cooler season favoured in southeast SA

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for late summer to mid-autumn, shows increased chances of below average daytime temperatures over the southeast of South Australia. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans.

For the February to April period in SA, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are between 35 and 40% south of the Yorke Peninsula (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be cooler than average across these parts of the State, with about 4 out of 10 being warmer. Across the rest of the SA the chances range from 40 to 55%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over much of the southeast of South Australia, but only weakly or very weakly consistent across the bulk of the State (see background information).

The chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures range from 60% in the far northwest corner of SA to 35 to 40% in the southeast.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be moderately consistent over the southern half of SA, but only very weakly consistent in the north of the State.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th FEBRUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information