Tas Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2004, issued 15th January 2004

Cooler season favoured in Tasmania

The Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for late summer to mid-autumn, shows slightly increased chances of below average daytime temperatures over Tasmania, and an even smaller shift in the odds towards below normal overnight temperatures. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans.

For the February to April period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are around 40% in Tasmania - slightly lower in some areas and slightly higher in others (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be cooler than average in Tasmania, with about 4 out of 10 being warmer.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the February to April period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be generally weakly consistent over Tasmania apart from the northeast where it rises to moderate (see background information).

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures in Tasmania is close to neutral, although cooler conditions are slightly more likely, with the chances of warmer than average nights around 45%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the February to April period to be weakly consistent over Tasmania.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
 

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th FEBRUARY 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for October to December 2003 - base period 1961-1990

 

Background Information